President Donald Trump has promised to use tariff revenue to fund at least five major initiatives: a $12 billion farmer bailout, $2,000 direct payments to Americans, expanded child care assistance, $3 trillion in tax cut offsets, and paying down the $37 trillion national debt. The problem is mathematical impossibility. Even the most optimistic projections show tariffs will generate $2.3 trillion over ten years—far short of the $10+ trillion in cumulative promises. This investigation reveals how the same revenue stream has been pledged multiple times over, while Trump’s repeated claims that “foreign nations” pay tariffs contradicts economic evidence showing American consumers and businesses bear the costs through higher prices. Budget experts describe it as an “over-allocation problem” where every dollar has been promised three or four times, making it arithmetically impossible for any of the commitments to be fully kept.
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